PC declared a dying breed, but is it really?
Watch out, PCs. Based on the way some people are interpreting this chart, your days are numbered.
Tech pundits love to announce product killers. They also love proclaiming the death of a product or category like Dr. McCoy announcing the unfortunate passing of an Enterprise comrade. This week, it’s the PC that has once again been declared as slowly spiralling towards its demise. The proof? A chart showing unit sales over time that shows PC numbers levelling out over the past couple of years.
Business Insider’s Steve Kovach claims in his title that Asymco’s chart is “proof that the PC is dying.” In addition to stating that sales have started to go flat, he points out that the Mac has been steadily rising and that Android and iOS devices are enjoying explosive growth. Kovach is not-too-subtly hinting that the combined force of Android, iOS, and Mac are sucking the life out of the PC.
But does the chart really show that happening? Let’s start with the fact that Asymco is showing units shipped, not units sold. Those two numbers can be very, very different — just ask RIM to tell you how they line up for the BlackBerry PlayBook. Next, there’s the fact that several hundred million PCs are still being shipped every year. And what about the fact that Android and iOS are rapidly gaining ground? Does that matter?
Probably not. Android and iOS devices aren’t primary computing devices, and they’re not the main productivity machine for anyone just yet. Yes, there’s plenty that you can do on your tablet or smartphone, but it’s still not on par with a desktop PC or Mac. Their rise doesn’t indicate the death of the PC either, only that people have really gotten behind smarter mobile platforms, too.
Asymco’s companion blog post states that over the same period Android and iOS devices outshipped PCs by 358 million to 336 million. That’s interesting, to be sure, but it still doesn’t prove the PC is dying.
It would also be interesting to know what’s actually included in this data. There are, for example, hundreds (if not thousands) of off-brand Android tablets and smartphones being shipped around the world. Take a quick look at eBay or Merimobiles to see how inflated these numbers could be if they’re included. On the PC side of things, do the figures include the millions of enthusiasts who purchase parts and build their own computers? Or even small to medium regional computer retailers who do the same?
And even though the Mac is steadily climbing up the chart, Apple would need to ship more than ten times more systems than it currently does to equal the combined shipments of the PC makers who contributed to those 336 million units.
What do you think, Sync readers? Is the PC really a dying breed, or does this chart really indicate that people love to buy the “next big thing”?
[Source: Business Insider and Asymco]
(Image credit: Seth Joel/PhotoDisc/Getty Images)
Maybe not. I have a Toshiba Satellite laptop which I purchased new in 2003. It has 512 megs and a 40 gig hardrive and WindowsXP. I use it everyday and I am very happy with it and so I don’t really plan on rushing out and buying another PC. Maybe there is a segment of PC owners, like me, who are simply happy with what they’ve got and therefor not buying new stuff. The market may simply be saturated with people like us. I did recently purchase a Smart phone but only because my old Motorola flip phone died. I was more interested in simply getting a replacement phone rather than a need for all the Apps.
I’m on side with Brian. My laptop (also a Toshiba) is 4 years old and doing just fine. I think it’s all about the maintenance: keeping on top of patches and updates etc., that are usually sent by Windows or the computer company. And don’t forget about defragmentation, wiping unused space, disk cleanup etc. Some people simply forget or can’t be bnothered with these simple tasks (likely the same ones that never change the oil in their cars!). And frankly I’m not sure the collective tech industry knows where it wants to go! Tablets, smaller or larger? Smartphones – seem to be getting bigger and bigger, and hardly used for phone calls anymore! Laptops shrinking to become netbooks or ‘minis’! E-readers evolving into tablets, and on and on. Whoa! Where is this all going? Is there a plan? In the meantime, Im quite happy with my horse-and-buggy, don’t have to worry about mp3, or bluetooth, or cd’s, or gps, or hands-free, or 300 more horsepower than I need (1 horsepower works just fine). And at -30C I don’t have to worry about plugging it in – just a nice Hudsons Bay blankey over Nellie’s backside and we’re good to go!
I agree I have one computer that is 6 yrs old xp remember the old one that sits on or under your desk. I also have a 3 year old lap top I use in the kitchen. I just order the playbook 64gb. The pc is not dead just better bang for your buck. Pc will burn u cds ect , do your mail accounting business play even a soft phone. All the others iphone (cool but what a price gouge totaly not worth it) tablets ( although realy a wanabe computer just not there yet tiny hard drive) are just gadgets. The mac is one company that I think is going to price itself right out of the market (gouge me more). This is why android is enjoying such a ride compaired to apple the prices seem like there more in line (although still high in some cases) with what people want to pay and think is fair value. Cell phones keep changing and go through more abuse than your computer + cool factor of having the newest phone is creating more turn over thats all. So yes i will be buying another pc someday
Not very likely that the PC is dying it is simply that people are using them longer . Most everyone I know has a laptop and a desktop already so sales are down because the market has caught up with demand . It is not like the days of the P3 being replaced by the P4 and everyone wanting to upgrade .
PCs have gotten a little of track with the P5 version and the core duo ETC . It has gotten a little confusing for users and they only worry now about will it do the basics such as email and videos on line . The new has worn off the idea of downloading all the apps and trying them mostly because of virouses and crashes .
The computing public is changing and you should try and keep up . users are smarter and not so easily conned into upgrades for upgrades sake at least not so much as the younger generation with iPods and such .
That fancy little chart tells me someone has too much time on their hands and is wasting it .
I built my XP Pro machine a few years before Vista came out and guess what? Its still working great. I may think about a new machine when windows 8 comes out. I think now the components are of better quality and the software bugs are few and far between so PC’s just last longer.
Agree with Jake. Historically customers were forced to upgrade computers every few years. Not anymore. Although we are shifting our tasks to other devices, the central device is still the PC or Mac computer. Big screen, powerful, lots of data storage. I forecast it will become a hub.
I seriously doubt these charts. The video game industry is massive and it always expanding exponentially. Also, this does not talk about the custom PCs people make. PC gamers typically go this route as it is actually cheaper and they can tune the PC to their caliber of play and budget. Additionally, quad-cores are becoming cheaper and cheaper, and software developers have not yet caught up completely.Though they can utilize all four cores, you do not need a quad to run the game. Most major games require at least a higher end duel core. So the need to upgrade is not currently present. Perhaps this year, and maybe a couple of years in the future PC sales might be below what is typically expected, but in no way is PC a dying breed. They are still a hub of all other devices, and they always will be until you can get the same power of a PC, in a smaller package.
Another supporting argument for this case is that over the past few years, we’ve seen the dawn of the duel, the quad, the Intel i7, and now even hex (6) core processors. The people that want them already have them for the most part, and the people that cannot afford them will probably hold off until either he later generations of these come out, or until the dawn of the mainstream market “multi core” processors. (The numbers are getting too high, so they are just calling them “multi core” for the same of simplicity).
PC is still going strong and is not yet ready to pass away in the great behond. As we have seen with the new toy ex. blackberry are still not trouble free or to user friendly ex. no mouse or key board. I think that they need to improve the new toys then shall I and many other look in the direction of the new toys.
I agree with the comments stated. I bought a new retail gaming PC in 2010, still working fine and can run high-end games like Skyrim and Battlefield 3, and in the future all I’ll need to do to continue its performance is get a new video card, not a new PC! My old PC from 2005 still works great for day-to-day tasks for ‘casual’ users who use it for video, e-mail, web browsing/etc. Really the only reason you’d need a new PC with high-end stuff is if you game or work in graphics/media/coding. So, if you were just going to use a computer for websites and videos like YouTube an older PC/laptop and even phones or tablets will suffice.
This chart proves very little except that PCs are lasting longer. I can assure you PC gaming definitely isn’t dead and won’t be for many years to come!
ok pc dieing then why did i just complete a year at dartt institute so i could get my pc technicians licence. and $10,000 for the course. after dealing with computers since 1985 its about time the quad came out and its still expensive but at least by next year when thenext gen comes out ill be making tons of money selling those new machines and i too am a pro gamer no death to pc,s for generations to come at the rate we are going now. theres always one who can start a riot with one word and writers are guilty of that.but as long as they pump them out my own system will always rock no matter how many times i upgrade or buy new . pc forever even though ibms status name was a piece of crap (pc)
Anyone ever stop and think that maybe..just maybe..the market is reaching a saturation point..PC’s and laptops are not throw away items..to be replaced whenever new tech comes out..that makes no economic sense..I don’t need a laptop to take with me everywhere..my 250GB hard-drive gave up the ghost last year..did I buy a new PC..NO!!..I replaced it with a 1TB hard drive and had what retrievable data was available transferred to it..total cost..less than $200..new CPU would of cost at least $600..maybe these Business Insiders should look at replacement tech purchases before declaring a certain aspect of this media as dead or dying first.
I agree, PC’s are not going anywhere anytime soon. The tablets are just fun toy’s, and with a new program coming out for Windows 8 that will can run Android…
Interesting read for sure. But is PC dying, or even Mac for that matter? As if mobile devices take over then both are doomed.
Realistically no. When the PC came out, we were headed for a paperless society, has that taken place?
There will always (or at least for the foreseeable future) be demand for computers (desktop and laptops). Certainally the corporate world is not about to change anytime soon, there is not even anything on the horizon to replace the PC in the corporate world (and the Mac is not even beginning to enter into that market – a much tougher nut to crack for Apple – security being one of the biggest issues they have not solved).
Sales have leveled off; well unless the 3rd world countries begin buying a lot there will become a market saturation at some point as they has been with televisions, automobiles, or any other device that came before. Does that mean the automobile or television is doomed as well? Market saturation or sales leveling off is not even close to a logical reason, there needs to be a reasonable replacement (one that does the job at least as well, and one that has some additional benefits (size, cost or whatever). The other huge hurdle for many of course is compatable access to apps, documents, whatever. More of a factor for corporate users, but still not to be overlooked.
Mobile devices will be a long time in replacing laptops (or desktops).
a) for gamers they are a long way off
b) for serious workers one can not input data anywhere nearly as fast as a keyboard (with good typist)
c) voice recgonition may be on the way – but to use in a noisy environment or one where privacy is required still is a challenge
d) most are far from being ready for the transition – tablets are cool – but other than for the nice side by side device – or perhaps service technicians (who have had tablets for 10 years – built by IBM and HP), there is little serious market at this point.
e) one of the big challenges is of couse the human machine interface – the tablet does not have it quite yet
I doubt it. A laptop or tablet is no good to me as I need a large screen. I do wish microsoft would stop changing Windows, I started with XP and found it better than Vista. Windows 7 is lousy and I dread windows 8 coming out. The only thing keeping me from Mac is the smaller screen size
Nope, the PC is not dying. Got myself a Lenovo laptop 2 years ago which works wonderfully with Win 7 so it won’t be replaced for a few years… and I build my own desktops and enjoy the dual monitor set up for photoshop so I don’t think I’ll be giving up the PC any time soon.
Btw, you say PC sales are flat but Mac sales are increasing. From what I read this isn’t an OS article but a desktop vs tablet/phone debate,and Macs are Personal Computers so if you combine Mac sales to the PC sales then sales are still increasing.
I feel quite dismayed that companies regularly make working devices obsolescent, when, if they kept manufactyuring them, we would all be quite happy with whatever degree of technology we have.
Consider the demise of the 33 and 45 records, to 8-track tapes, to cassette tapes, to cds…There was no need to do away with all those modes. We, the consumers, did not ask them to render our equipment useless and while ti can be said that the sound effects are clearer on modern media, we were doing quite fine thank you very much.
In my opinion, the whole scenario whether we are disucssing computers, audio equipment or tvs is just one huge money grab to try and prise the money outof our pockets and into corporate coffers, whose CEOs/CFOs make exorbitant salaries annually.
I wish they would just leave us alone, and make the devices last longer, and issue guarantees with their products, as things used to be when I was a kid.
Very exciting. I finally met someone who has actually heard of an 8-track. Had one in my sports car during University days in late 60′s early 70′s. Loved it. Bolted under the dashboard. Question is: I’m sure there was a 4-track for a very brief couple of months prior to the 8-track but NOBODY seems to have heard of it.
Wow – I wasgoingto add one more sentence, and as I typed the uppercase ‘D’, I got a window which said, and I quote…
“It appears that you have already made that comment”
Now folks – what lunacy would compel the IT people responsible for this or any other site, to even design a window that would pop up in such a manner, when they did not even know what I was planning to say?
What I was going to say, when I was so rudely intyerrupted, was;;;
Do I ejoy my spanking new laptop – yes, of course – it is lots of ufn to play with, but if it had never beeninvented, was I happy with what I altready had? Of course I was – just like the chap near the top of these comments who was happy with his 2003 Toshiba Satellite 40Gig laptop.
The moral of the story is – “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”!
It’s so easy folks – here is the answer. People who do such things are acting boorishly and are demonstrating their low breeding.
I suppose the next antisocial behaviour will be (if it hasn’t happened already) is interrupting one’s partner when they are amorously planting a lovely kiss on one’s lips, to answer a cell phone call or text message.
People need to set priorities, but above all they need to be honest. And, the heighth of dishonesty is letting somebody know you think well of them by engaging in a conversation or amorous interlude, but cutting them off like they don’t even count, as soon as somebody contacts them.
I think such behaviour shows extremely low character and ought to be a red flag for potential relationships. If a person cannot turn off their phone and stick it in their pocket, they don’t deserve our attention (unless they have told us ahead of time that there is an extremely urgent call or message they have to answer when it comes in, then, we could make allowances).
There is no doubt in my mind, that laptop computers are becoming extinct and that android tablets are taking over that market. Desktop PC computers running windows already feels like 8 track tape players in the 70′s compared to the apple mac OS, but i think integrated desktop systems like the iMac will continue to thrive and that there will be an ongoing coupling between our home computers and our televisions. the word television is already an anachronism and large extended computer flatscreens and 1080p projectors will become the norm in households. disc media will die soon and all entertainment will be downloaded.
Hate to break it to you, but not a discussion of which OS will thrive. The Imac is still a personal computer, though, in my opinion, all in one desktops are the worst investment you can make… much better to get a box and upgrade as needed… new monitor, just buy the monitor, not the whole computer.
PC’s shipped, is that just name brand or ALL PC’s shipped? me thinks its just name brand (HP DELL MDG etc) The only reason that the Android and Apple phones are spiking as high as they are is because people are wanting a better phone then JUST a phone, they want something they can play with to preoccupy thier tme with and can you really buy a new phone thats just a phone anymore? I thnk the numbers are not reflecting the fact that the Android and iphones are still reletivily (sp) new toys on the market. The PC isnt going anywhere, its still the machine of business and always will be. the mac may be on an upslope of pieces shipped, but really the price of a mac System or laptop is 2-3 times more then the price of a PC. every business i have dealt with has a IBM compatable (yes thats what we used to call PC’s back in the day) its cheaper then a Mac and easier to use then an Android/Apple phone. The PC is here to stay folks,I cant see it going anywhere for a long time.