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	<title>Comments on: Sync talks with futurist, sci-fi writer Robert J. Sawyer</title>
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	<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html</link>
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		<title>By: Cisco reveals its top 25 tech predictions &#124; Sync Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-27024</link>
		<dc:creator>Cisco reveals its top 25 tech predictions &#124; Sync Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Feb 2010 15:20:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-27024</guid>
		<description>[...] our chat with a futurist didn&#8217;t scare you off, check out the (less frightening) tech predictions offered up by Dave [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] our chat with a futurist didn&#8217;t scare you off, check out the (less frightening) tech predictions offered up by Dave [...]
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=27024', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Richard Peppe</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-25199</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Peppe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-25199</guid>
		<description>Interesting piece. However, metaphor and analogy can not substitute for reality and history. The Russians first exploded their primitive version of a &quot;hydrogen bomb&quot; in the mid 1950&#039;s. It was as big as a small factory. The only way they could deliver a much less lethal atomic bomb to the American heartland was by bombers. The U.S. had an enormous advantage in aircraft and almost certainly could have stopped the attack force before it reached the US. The case with China is even more dramatic. In the 1950&#039;s the US could have bombed China into oblivion without any fear of retaliation. Today China has nuclear weapons trained on the US and could destroy millions of Americans in less than an hour. 

  There is no qustion that America is less secure in the event of an actual war with either Russia or China than it was 50 years ago. Why did this happen? Does this history have any value today?

See my blog

 http://warbyiq.com/   R. Peppe</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting piece. However, metaphor and analogy can not substitute for reality and history. The Russians first exploded their primitive version of a &#8220;hydrogen bomb&#8221; in the mid 1950&#8217;s. It was as big as a small factory. The only way they could deliver a much less lethal atomic bomb to the American heartland was by bombers. The U.S. had an enormous advantage in aircraft and almost certainly could have stopped the attack force before it reached the US. The case with China is even more dramatic. In the 1950&#8217;s the US could have bombed China into oblivion without any fear of retaliation. Today China has nuclear weapons trained on the US and could destroy millions of Americans in less than an hour. </p>
<p>  There is no qustion that America is less secure in the event of an actual war with either Russia or China than it was 50 years ago. Why did this happen? Does this history have any value today?</p>
<p>See my blog</p>
<p> <a href="http://warbyiq.com/" rel="nofollow">http://warbyiq.com/</a>   R. Peppe
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=25199', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: RJS Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24776</link>
		<dc:creator>RJS Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 02:35:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24776</guid>
		<description>SOrry should have added, true AI is the ability to learn...people confuse self aware, inteligence with Consciousness. &#039;wiki&#039; Consciousness is subjective experience or awareness or wakefulness or the executive control system of the mind.  

A computer is already self-aware (POST on boot for example) doing system checks and stuff...knowing where the computer is and how or what internet connection they can accept.  All of that exists today.  The only thing missing in the &#039;terminator&#039; scenario is the ability to learn, sure we can use genetic algorithms to solve problems faster but fo a computer at this stage to take outside imput and to form their OWN IDEA...I am going to stree OWN IDEA... about the idea is what really we are talking about, the rest of the posturing is just that, computers are &#039;self aware&#039; and &#039;self correcting&#039; to a point now.

Get a computer to actually start to learn new skills without a developer progaming anyting and you got a nobel prize and probable SkyNet (joke).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SOrry should have added, true AI is the ability to learn&#8230;people confuse self aware, inteligence with Consciousness. &#8216;wiki&#8217; Consciousness is subjective experience or awareness or wakefulness or the executive control system of the mind.  </p>
<p>A computer is already self-aware (POST on boot for example) doing system checks and stuff&#8230;knowing where the computer is and how or what internet connection they can accept.  All of that exists today.  The only thing missing in the &#8216;terminator&#8217; scenario is the ability to learn, sure we can use genetic algorithms to solve problems faster but fo a computer at this stage to take outside imput and to form their OWN IDEA&#8230;I am going to stree OWN IDEA&#8230; about the idea is what really we are talking about, the rest of the posturing is just that, computers are &#8217;self aware&#8217; and &#8217;self correcting&#8217; to a point now.</p>
<p>Get a computer to actually start to learn new skills without a developer progaming anyting and you got a nobel prize and probable SkyNet (joke).
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24776', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: RJS Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24775</link>
		<dc:creator>RJS Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 02:23:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24775</guid>
		<description>Ed,

Sorry to say but all the your two statements above are already available, if you check out thehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_algorithm they actually discuss the topics you say can not happen in hardward and software.  Genetic Algorithms have been able to approximate a number of things so I wouldn&#039;t call it a joke if all your basing AI on is your couple of statements....AI is a lot more that what you mentioned.

:)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ed,</p>
<p>Sorry to say but all the your two statements above are already available, if you check out thehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_algorithm they actually discuss the topics you say can not happen in hardward and software.  Genetic Algorithms have been able to approximate a number of things so I wouldn&#8217;t call it a joke if all your basing AI on is your couple of statements&#8230;.AI is a lot more that what you mentioned.</p>
<p> <img src='http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24775', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: RJS Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24773</link>
		<dc:creator>RJS Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 01:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24773</guid>
		<description>Quote:
&#039;MULTIPLE hardware inputs such as many Internet connections,
multiple machine vision systems with pre-built font and
typeface recognition and audio inputs, the emulated human
brain could learn at a much more accelerated rate than humans&#039;

You wouldn`t need type face recognition unless you wanted them to scan stuff in...otherwise the &#039;terminator bot&#039; can just grab everything lately off the internet.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quote:<br />
&#8216;MULTIPLE hardware inputs such as many Internet connections,<br />
multiple machine vision systems with pre-built font and<br />
typeface recognition and audio inputs, the emulated human<br />
brain could learn at a much more accelerated rate than humans&#8217;</p>
<p>You wouldn`t need type face recognition unless you wanted them to scan stuff in&#8230;otherwise the &#8216;terminator bot&#8217; can just grab everything lately off the internet.
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24773', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Henry A. Eckstein</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24766</link>
		<dc:creator>Henry A. Eckstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:31:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24766</guid>
		<description>If we continue on with trying to &quot;Code&quot; and &quot;Program&quot;
machines the way we are today, then they&#039;re going
to continue being DUMB as DOORKNOBS!

If, however, we begin to construct the basic hardware
that EMULATES our own organic neural net, then we&#039;ll
get a machine that can rival and even exceed our own
capabilities.

Using an example, IBM fairly recently sumulated the
cortical region of a rat on a massively parallel
supercomputer called Blue Gene. By emulating the actual
molecular and chemical structure of that cortex in software,
the designers were able to run a 10 second simulation of 
its operation and were thus able to perform ANY operation 
that would normally be used in that brain structure 
-albeit quite slowly-.

Applying such simulation of basic brain structure, we would 
be able to DUPLICATE the general pattern matching capabilities
of humans within software, which then allows the simulation
to learn very much like we do. If we give the simulation
MULTIPLE hardware inputs such as many Internet connections,
multiple machine vision systems with pre-built font and 
typeface recognition and audio inputs, the emulated human 
brain could learn at a much more accelerated rate than humans.

By sending the emulated brain structure to &quot;School&quot; with 
multiple teachers &quot;teaching&quot; it 24 hours a day, 365 days a 
year in shifts, we could turn that un-organized neural net 
from a baby into a graduate level student in probably less 
than 4 years. AND it would aquire, from its internal pattern 
matching abilities, a semblance of what we call a PERSONALITY.

The quality of that personality would be HIGHLY DEPENDENT
upon the initial conditions of it&#039;s learning environment.
So the warning here is that a fully software-emulated
brain structure would need to be taught ALL the basics
of human ethics, morality, art, science, social etiquette 
and politics by RESPONSIBLE, ETHICAL and DISCIPLINED people.

This would have an effect much like how we teach a child.
Children taught by ethical, moral and disciplined people
generally turn into ethical, moral and self-disciplined
adults. This final learning could then be copied to other
hardware to allows us a DEFENCE against the inevitable
ROGUE artificial intelligences that will be eventually 
created by rogue nasty, unethical, immoral people.

The key here is who gets up and running a fully grown 
AI first! -- First one out of the gate usually wins!

The base hardware challenges is that some people believe
that a 100 Petaflop (i.e. 100 Quadrillion Floating Point
Operations Per Second) supercomputer with a 100 Exabyte
memory storage capacity (100 Quintillion bytes) is enough
hardware to simulate the entire human brain&#039;s molecular
structure at faster-than-human speeds.

This type of hardware capacity (if using Moores Law) 
is only about 20 years away since the fastest Cray 
Roadrunner supercomputers already does 1.17 Petaflops.
Double that speed every 18 months and you get past that
magical threshold of 100 petaflops to equal human brainpower 
in a little over 20 years which is right on schedule.

AND we could fit that sort of hardware in a 
small building the size of a 4 bedroom house.

I should ask a pointed question, that since we know the 
actual chemical biology of the brain pretty well,
who&#039;s to know or say whether or not at some secret lab
say at the NSA (National Security Agency) that
a basic human brain isn&#039;t already being emulated
on a CLUSTER of 1+ petaflop IBM Blue Gene/Q 
supercomputers? At today&#039;s prices, 100 such machines
would be about 10 BILLION dollars (i.e. $100 million a pop)
which is a drop in the bucket of the U.S.&#039;s 2009
Department of Defence budget of $550 BILLION DOLLARS!

And who&#039;s to say that emulated brain isn&#039;t already working 
on designing it&#039;s future upgraded self to be fully installed
within mobile hardware that has arms, legs and sensory inputs?

Can we say TERMINATOR scenario!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If we continue on with trying to &#8220;Code&#8221; and &#8220;Program&#8221;<br />
machines the way we are today, then they&#8217;re going<br />
to continue being DUMB as DOORKNOBS!</p>
<p>If, however, we begin to construct the basic hardware<br />
that EMULATES our own organic neural net, then we&#8217;ll<br />
get a machine that can rival and even exceed our own<br />
capabilities.</p>
<p>Using an example, IBM fairly recently sumulated the<br />
cortical region of a rat on a massively parallel<br />
supercomputer called Blue Gene. By emulating the actual<br />
molecular and chemical structure of that cortex in software,<br />
the designers were able to run a 10 second simulation of<br />
its operation and were thus able to perform ANY operation<br />
that would normally be used in that brain structure<br />
-albeit quite slowly-.</p>
<p>Applying such simulation of basic brain structure, we would<br />
be able to DUPLICATE the general pattern matching capabilities<br />
of humans within software, which then allows the simulation<br />
to learn very much like we do. If we give the simulation<br />
MULTIPLE hardware inputs such as many Internet connections,<br />
multiple machine vision systems with pre-built font and<br />
typeface recognition and audio inputs, the emulated human<br />
brain could learn at a much more accelerated rate than humans.</p>
<p>By sending the emulated brain structure to &#8220;School&#8221; with<br />
multiple teachers &#8220;teaching&#8221; it 24 hours a day, 365 days a<br />
year in shifts, we could turn that un-organized neural net<br />
from a baby into a graduate level student in probably less<br />
than 4 years. AND it would aquire, from its internal pattern<br />
matching abilities, a semblance of what we call a PERSONALITY.</p>
<p>The quality of that personality would be HIGHLY DEPENDENT<br />
upon the initial conditions of it&#8217;s learning environment.<br />
So the warning here is that a fully software-emulated<br />
brain structure would need to be taught ALL the basics<br />
of human ethics, morality, art, science, social etiquette<br />
and politics by RESPONSIBLE, ETHICAL and DISCIPLINED people.</p>
<p>This would have an effect much like how we teach a child.<br />
Children taught by ethical, moral and disciplined people<br />
generally turn into ethical, moral and self-disciplined<br />
adults. This final learning could then be copied to other<br />
hardware to allows us a DEFENCE against the inevitable<br />
ROGUE artificial intelligences that will be eventually<br />
created by rogue nasty, unethical, immoral people.</p>
<p>The key here is who gets up and running a fully grown<br />
AI first! &#8212; First one out of the gate usually wins!</p>
<p>The base hardware challenges is that some people believe<br />
that a 100 Petaflop (i.e. 100 Quadrillion Floating Point<br />
Operations Per Second) supercomputer with a 100 Exabyte<br />
memory storage capacity (100 Quintillion bytes) is enough<br />
hardware to simulate the entire human brain&#8217;s molecular<br />
structure at faster-than-human speeds.</p>
<p>This type of hardware capacity (if using Moores Law)<br />
is only about 20 years away since the fastest Cray<br />
Roadrunner supercomputers already does 1.17 Petaflops.<br />
Double that speed every 18 months and you get past that<br />
magical threshold of 100 petaflops to equal human brainpower<br />
in a little over 20 years which is right on schedule.</p>
<p>AND we could fit that sort of hardware in a<br />
small building the size of a 4 bedroom house.</p>
<p>I should ask a pointed question, that since we know the<br />
actual chemical biology of the brain pretty well,<br />
who&#8217;s to know or say whether or not at some secret lab<br />
say at the NSA (National Security Agency) that<br />
a basic human brain isn&#8217;t already being emulated<br />
on a CLUSTER of 1+ petaflop IBM Blue Gene/Q<br />
supercomputers? At today&#8217;s prices, 100 such machines<br />
would be about 10 BILLION dollars (i.e. $100 million a pop)<br />
which is a drop in the bucket of the U.S.&#8217;s 2009<br />
Department of Defence budget of $550 BILLION DOLLARS!</p>
<p>And who&#8217;s to say that emulated brain isn&#8217;t already working<br />
on designing it&#8217;s future upgraded self to be fully installed<br />
within mobile hardware that has arms, legs and sensory inputs?</p>
<p>Can we say TERMINATOR scenario!
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24766', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24764</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:25:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24764</guid>
		<description>Like</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24764', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24763</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:21:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24763</guid>
		<description>If we get that far I totally agree.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If we get that far I totally agree.
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24763', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24762</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:20:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24762</guid>
		<description>No Colleen that is not what the majority of people have done with god. God is something that you have to believe in, since you can&#039;t prove he/she/it exists (no, you can&#039;t so please don&#039;t make the typical ID arguments etc that you can).  Machines would not have to take a &quot;leap of faith&quot; to know that we created them because it would be clear with minimal investigation that we had (not to mention that leaps of faith are totally counter to reason and logic, so I would tend to doubt a machine would bother to &quot;have faith&quot; about anything).

However, your point about impediments could be right on.  A machine could possibly (although we can only speculate on how possible this is since we have no evidence to go on at this point) see us as an impediment to it&#039;s survival and try to remove us because of it.  Ironically though, this would be a very Darwinian action - a concept that we understand well and should be able to anticipate.  So I would hope that we would be smart enough to put safeguards in place to ensure this could not happen.  After all, history does show us that simply relying on gratitude hardly ensures you will receive it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No Colleen that is not what the majority of people have done with god. God is something that you have to believe in, since you can&#8217;t prove he/she/it exists (no, you can&#8217;t so please don&#8217;t make the typical ID arguments etc that you can).  Machines would not have to take a &#8220;leap of faith&#8221; to know that we created them because it would be clear with minimal investigation that we had (not to mention that leaps of faith are totally counter to reason and logic, so I would tend to doubt a machine would bother to &#8220;have faith&#8221; about anything).</p>
<p>However, your point about impediments could be right on.  A machine could possibly (although we can only speculate on how possible this is since we have no evidence to go on at this point) see us as an impediment to it&#8217;s survival and try to remove us because of it.  Ironically though, this would be a very Darwinian action &#8211; a concept that we understand well and should be able to anticipate.  So I would hope that we would be smart enough to put safeguards in place to ensure this could not happen.  After all, history does show us that simply relying on gratitude hardly ensures you will receive it.
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24762', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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		<title>By: Scott</title>
		<link>http://www.sync-blog.com/sync/2009/12/sync-talks-with-futurist-sci-fi-writer-robert-j-sawyer.html/comment-page-1#comment-24761</link>
		<dc:creator>Scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sync-blog.com/?p=5372#comment-24761</guid>
		<description>I found this article very entertaining and the questions were answered well.  The future is strictly a prediction and everyone thinks of a different outcome.  Sawyer&#039;s beliefs may not align with yours, but that does not mean he is an idiot, as a few of you have claimed.  His research into the subject is likey vast.  You can&#039;t write about stuff you don&#039;t know or understand.  Keep up the good work and lets hope the future is bright?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I found this article very entertaining and the questions were answered well.  The future is strictly a prediction and everyone thinks of a different outcome.  Sawyer&#8217;s beliefs may not align with yours, but that does not mean he is an idiot, as a few of you have claimed.  His research into the subject is likey vast.  You can&#8217;t write about stuff you don&#8217;t know or understand.  Keep up the good work and lets hope the future is bright?
<p align="right"><a href="javascript:void(0)" title=""  onmouseover="window.status=''; return true" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true" onclick="ddrc_popup('http://www.sync-blog.com/wp-content/plugins/dd-report-comments/report.php?c=24761', 400, 400)">(Report comment)</a></p>
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